OK, here are some facts:
1. Mike Gravel has not one single Delegate, so his campaign is as dead as a brain-dead person; alive, but just barely.
2. Hillary Clinton still has a chance.
3. Obama is gaining a ton of momentum.
4. Obama has more delegates than Clinton.
5. The Super Delegates will decide the Democratic Primary.
6. The Democrats will win the White House.
OK, now let's go through some of these and start the diatribe!
First, Hillary Clinton. At this point, her campaign has hit a wall. It's never a good sign when a campaign manager leaves their post in the middle of an election and the candidate is on a losing streak, no matter WHAT the reason is. It creates a sense of uneasiness within the base of the supporters and causes people to look twice at it. Hillary has, to this point, only won 10 states. Obama has won 21. She's now concentrating on Texas and Ohio, which will either prove to be her last stand or the Phoneix's return.
But getting lost in some of this is her "electability" in November. Right now, McCain is going to be the likely nominee. and what has every insane Conservative said about that? Ann Coulter, the devil herself, has even admitted that SHE would vote for Hillary Clinton if McCain gets the nomination. In essence, we are seeing that Hillary could handily win in November due to the Democrats voting for a Democrat and the Conservative base, in essence, protest voting for her. She would win in November, and that's it. There is little dismissing she is a guarantee if she wins the primary.
Now onto Obama. Right now, he as achieving a LOT of momentum. We saw that his endorsements aren't helping, as evidence in Massachusetts. We are also seeing that people don't really care about that. Obama has won 21 states, leads in delegets, and is now crushing Clinton in elections. Not only that, but he has not made any major slip-ups thus far. Obama seems to know the obvious fact; EVERYONE is watching him on the high-wire and is waiting to see if he missteps even once.
Obama is also showing he can, in reality, reach across lines of race, sex, and even party lines, something Clinton voters are not doing at this point. Despite winning heavily with blacks in southern States and losing with whites, he has begun reaching over the lines and is winning more with whites as shown in the "Potamic Primaries". Same with sex, winning women as well. In fact, Republicans are coming out for Obama now.
In all, the fact of the matter is, we've seen incredibly heavy turnout for the Democrats and not so heavy turnout for the Republicans. One can only assume that another 4 years of Bush has mobilized the base and made them come out in droves to vote. the Republicans, on the other hand, are stuck with an internal discussion and debate over the face of the Republican Party. The question there? "Is the Regan-era of the Republican Party over?" That is for another day and another post.
But, because of everything I've seen thus far, it is safe to say that, yes, the Democrats WILL win in November. The only things that can change that is a strong showing from the Republican Nominee, a terrorist attack, or the democratic nominee being assassinated. Otherwise, I doubt anything close to a Republican win will happen... unless they get Ron Paul.
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